| Through the 20th century there have been pandemic outbreaks of flu half a dozen times, about once a decade, but the last was in 1968. So we've had 40 years in the clear. What does this mean? Does it mean we're now immune? No. Does it mean then that a pandemic is not only inevitable but perhaps even 'overdue'? (Yes, the report uses this favourite scare word too.) Well, not exactly. There is nothing pre-ordained about the interval between pandemics, or many other natural phenomena for that matter. Just because we haven't had one for a bit, doesn't make one now more likely. Or less. Many of the Committee's fears are legitimate. It is sensible to call for greater intergovernmental cooperation to warn of and contain a disease outbreak wherever one might occur, and it is right to suggest that greater travel enables the more rapid spread of such diseases. BUT it is irresponsible in its use of the word 'inevitable' – a word that I suspect it used in the knowledge that the media would find it irresistible. AND it is irresponsible to inject new life into this abstract fear while ordinary flu kills 12,000 people a year in Britain alone. |
